
Childhood Immunization Rates Continue Downward Slide, Raising Risk of Vaccine-Preventable Disease Outbreaks
Newly released CDC data show childhood immunization rates have steadily declined since 2020, pushing measles vaccination coverage below the threshold needed for herd immunity and leaving an estimated 280,000 kindergartners without documented vaccinations this year. Robert Hopkins Jr, MD, medical director of the National Foundation for Infectious Diseases, discusses the latest vaccine data, geographic patterns, and how public health and school officials can address this continued trend.
Earlier this week, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released the childhood vaccination rates, which showed they have continued to decline.1
According to the latest CDC figures, coverage for the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine among kindergartners now sits at 92.4%, below the 95% threshold generally considered necessary to maintain herd immunity at the community level. The consequences are already visible: The US recorded historic numbers of measles cases in 2025 and 2026. And it is quite possible that with the current vaccination rates and exemptions, the pattern will continue for measles cases to increase for 2026-2027.1
"We've seen historic numbers of measles outbreaks in 2025. We've seen an even greater number of measles cases in 2026—highest numbers we've seen since measles was eliminated in the United States back in 2000," said Robert Hopkins Jr, MD, medical director of the National Foundation for Infectious Diseases. He noted it is "probably inevitable" that the US will lose its measles elimination status when the Pan American Health Organization meets this fall, following a similar loss of status in Canada last year.
The decline is not uniform across the country. States with strong immunization requirements and robust public health programs, including New York, California, and West Virginia, have largely maintained high coverage rates, whereas others have seen coverage fall for MMR, diphtheria and tetanus toxoids and acellular pertussis, and polio vaccines alike. Nonmedical exemptions have also risen nationally, leaving more communities vulnerable.
With the CDC estimating approximately 280,000 kindergartners currently lack documented vaccinations, Hopkins emphasized that reversing the trend will require coordinated local action. "If the schools and the public health units are not collaborating with health care professionals in the communities, if they're not collaborating with local media, if they're not collaborating with parents and families...we need community effort, repeated messaging that is consistent, access for kids that are behind," he said.
Hopkins stressed that rebuilding public trust and ensuring families have access to health care professionals who can answer their questions will be critical to closing the immunization gap before it leads to further disease spread in schools and communities nationwide.
Reference
1. Vaccination coverage and exemptions among kindergartners. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. August 17, 2026. Accessed August 18, 2026. https://www.cdc.gov/schoolvaxview/data/index.html
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