Low vaccine uptake, immunity gaps, and new antiviral data raise alarms ahead of potential late-summer surge.
COVID-19 Vaccines & Rising Infection Trends
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COVID-19 infections are rising across much of the United States, particularly in the South and Midwest, according to the CDC. As key indicators such as wastewater viral levels, test positivity, and emergency department visits trend upward, health experts warn of a potential late-summer surge. This rise coincides with federal efforts to restrict access to updated booster vaccines, prompting concern from scientists and public health officials.1
Despite changing federal guidance, recent data from a CDC interim report underscores the value of updated 2024–2025 COVID-19 vaccines. The report found that:2
These results support the CDC and Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommendation that all individuals aged ≥6 months receive the 2024–2025 vaccine 2.
Nevertheless, the Trump administration's 2025 policy update has limited eligibility for updated boosters to those aged 65+ and individuals 12+ with certain health conditions, excluding most children and pregnant individuals from broad recommendations.1
“If you’re vaccinated against COVID-19, you’re less likely to get infected,” said virologist Andrew Pekosz, PhD, of Johns Hopkins University. “But we haven’t gotten a lot of people vaccinated for the past few years, and with the current recommendations changing, it’s even less likely."1
Sam Scarpino, PhD, professor at Northeastern University, warned that variants with immune-escape properties are likely to drive another wave. “Whether it’s going to be large or small, I don’t think we could really say… but the vaccines are still providing some protection. It’s never too late to get the booster."1
Experts expressed concern that narrowing access to boosters undermines efforts to reduce community transmission. “If you vaccinate broadly, you can reduce the spread of COVID-19 in the population,” said Pekosz.1
Vaccination uptake remains low: only 23% of adults had received updated boosters as of April 2025. Among young children aged 6 months to 4 years, just 5.6% are vaccinated; for children 5–17 years old, about 15% are vaccinated, per CDC estimates.1
COVID-related deaths remain significant, with 35,000 to 54,000 recorded since October 2024, and 149 deaths in the week ending June 28 alone. Long COVID affects approximately 5.3% of adults, though updated federal data has not been released this year.1
Updated 2024–2025 COVID-19 vaccines show strong protection against hospitalization, especially in older and high-risk adults.
The Trump administration's narrowed booster recommendations may reduce overall immunity and limit public health impact.
Low vaccination rates in children and adults, combined with rising case indicators, suggest a potential late-summer surge.
Children continue to experience COVID hospitalization rates consistent with past years, especially given low immunity due to low vaccination rates. “Covid cases are really occurring in children at a very high level right now,” Pekosz said. “It’s not nearly as dangerous in children as in adults, but it still causes a lot of hospitalizations."1
Antivirals like Paxlovid remain effective and are not currently subject to usage restrictions by the CDC or FDA, though a federal subsidy program is scheduled to end in December. “It’s not so much that the virus has become less dangerous,” said Pekosz. “It’s that we have immunity, so we fight off the virus more efficiently than we did early in the pandemic."1
He added that prevention remains key: masking, improving ventilation, staying home when sick, and especially vaccination. “When the government doesn’t use the science to drive their decision making, you can see the confusion that it puts into the general public."1
As concern grows over rising COVID-19 cases and low vaccine uptake, new data offers potential guidance for protecting one of the most at-risk groups: immunocompromised individuals. A phase 2 trial from Pfizer (EPIC-IC) found that extending the antiviral regimen of nirmatrelvir–ritonavir (Paxlovid) beyond the standard 5-day course significantly reduced rates of viral rebound, even though overall viral suppression remained similar across 5-, 10-, and 15-day groups.3
In the trial, viral rebound occurred in 17.3% of patients treated for 5 days, compared to just 2.1% and 2% in the 10- and 15-day groups, respectively. These findings suggest that longer treatment durations may improve outcomes for patients with prolonged infections, a group already at high risk of developing long COVID, viral resistance, and complications.3
While the standard 5-day regimen remains appropriate for most, researchers say extended courses could offer additional protection for severely immunocompromised patients. Adverse effects were generally manageable across all groups, and only the 5-day cohort experienced COVID-related hospitalizations. Pfizer has launched a follow-up study (ASPIRE-IC) to further investigate optimal treatment duration.3
These findings add to mounting evidence that sustained antiviral access and personalized care remain critical tools, particularly as many high-risk individuals face restricted vaccine eligibility and ongoing viral exposure.3
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