What Would Taking COVID-19 Vaccines Off the US Market Do to Americans?

Recently, there have been reports that federal government health agencies, led by HHS Secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), are seriously discussing the possibility of removing COVID-19 vaccines off the US market.

Despite the perception that COVID-19 is not as severe as it once was, it still causes thousands of hospitalizations and deaths annually with mortality rates mirroring that of a small city. The World Health Organization reports 1,573 individuals in the US died of COVID in the last 28 days through January 25, 2026.¹

“CDC estimates that COVID disease killed between 45,000 and 64,000 people in the US last year,” said Robert Hopkins Jr, MD, medical director of the National Foundation for Infectious Diseases (NFID). “Allowing the virus to circulate unfettered by any vaccine, means more virus replication, more viral evolution, and an unknown future for what COVID is going to look like going forward.”

There are a number of different groups who are vulnerable to COVID-19, and if the US were to take the COVID-19 vaccines off the market, then all of these groups are at an increased risk for severe morbidity and mortality.

“Removal of COVID vaccines from the US market would mean that our government has decided to let the COVID virus, in my terms, win. It's going to leave the virus to run unfettered through the US population without any hindrance from vaccines,” Hopkins said.

“I would anticipate an increase in hospitalizations and increase of deaths due to COVID in older adults, in young children, particularly kids under 2 years of age, and in pregnant women. We could expect to see more severe disease in immunocompromised patients and those who have chronic health conditions. And we'd see more hospitalizations and deaths in otherwise healthy young people who might be protected by vaccines.”

A recent JAMA study looked at the 2024-2025 COVID-19 vaccines against severe COVID-19 and mortality, and if it varied by SARS-CoV-2 lineage or spike protein mutations. Over 8000 adults—1888 individuals with COVID-19, and 6605 individuals without COVID-19—were included in the study, and the vaccines had an estimated efficacy of 40% against hospitalization and 79% against invasive mechanical ventilation or death. “The estimated VE was similar for KP311 and XEC lineages, as well as for spike protein mutations potentially associated with immune evasion (S31 deletion, T22N and F59S substitutions),” the investigators wrote.²

In looking at vaccines overall in the US, especially as they relate to the federal government’s guidance and changing recommendations, Hopkins paints a bleak picture.

“In my view, we're in a really dark place when we see policies discussed or implemented which reduce support for access to life-saving vaccines. We receive reductions in funding for science to advance knowledge which will protect and improve the health of Americans. We see failure to continue to support data feeds which allow us to monitor the health of Americans and detect disease outbreaks,” Hopkins said. “Life expectancy in the US has increased dramatically since the end of World War II based on a number of health advances, much of that, attributable to vaccines. It makes very little sense to me to think we'll be better off backtracking, removing tools which have led to these improvements.”

References

1. WHO COVID-19 dashboard. WHO. Accessed February 12, 2026.
https://data.who.int/dashboards/covid19/deaths?m49=840
2. Ma KC, Webber A, Lauring AS, et al. Estimated Effectiveness of 2024-2025 COVID-19 Vaccination Against Severe COVID-19. JAMA Netw Open. 2026;9(2):e2557415. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2025.57415